Middle East Wars,
By James E. Horn
The next round is coming, and I suspect it will be within the next 30-days.
Israel became independent in 1948, fought a war over the Suez with Egypt in 1956, the Six Day War in 1967, and the Yom Kippur War in 1973 along with a number of incursions into Gaza and Lebanon.
Whenever the Islamists have attacked Israel, they have lost. Yet they continue to threaten and attack again and again. It is a part of what they are – a pack of barbarians bent on the destruction of Israel, of every Jew on earth as their Mohammed decreed over a thousand years ago. They will never, ever cease their efforts to destroy Israel. And, if they ever do, we Christians are next.
The various forces arrayed against Israel change. Iraq is no longer a threat. Turkey, once neutral is now a belligerent force. Jordan is trying to remain neutral as is Egypt.
The so-called Palestinians on the West Bank and in Gaza will be active participants, along with Hezbollah and Iranian forces in Lebanon and Syria along with Syrians.
With ISIS in Syria and Iraq beaten down for the moment, Iran is the main provocateur.
Iran has serious troubles at home with an increasingly restive populace fed up with corruption, abuse, and increasing hardships. When ambitious but inept banana republic governments such as the Mulla thugocracy in Tehran see serious problems at home, they seek to find bogeymen to blame for their troubles. Starting a war is seen as a solution to rally the populace around them.
Shia Iran is supporting Houthi (Shia) rebels in Yemen and they are being seriously opposed by Sunni Saudi Arabia and its allies. The civil war is not ended and it has proven very costly for the Iranians. Essentially, the Mullahs miscalculated and are having trouble sustaining their side of the conflict.
Barak Hussein Obama, an admitted Moslem, provided tons of cash (that he stole from America) in plastic bags to the Mullahs and that multi-billion dollar fortune is rapidly dwindling (much of it purloined by the Mullahs themselves as they likely gave a hefty commission back to Obama) as Iran feeds the Yemen civil war, supplies weaponry and pays bills for Hamas in the Gaza strip, and pours weapons and war materials to support its Hezbollah ally and Iranian regular forces in Lebanon and Syria.
The Iranians are pulling on the strings of war with irregular rocket attacks from Lebanon and Syrian territory, and recent rocket barrages from Gaza.
Iranian munitions stockpiles in Syria are regularly taken out by the Israelis, and the Iranians keep replenishing those stockpiles. I would suspect that some of those caches are being used as bait for the Israelis while other stockpiles are being successfully hidden.
Another force in the area is rising up. Turkey. This writer was in Turkey during the 1967 Six Day War. When the Arab attackers’ advantage was faltering, the Arabs asked the Turks to weigh in on their behalf. The Turks, still closely allied with the United States and having close relations with Israel declined. Fifty years later, things have changed and Turkish Grand Pubah (Caliph) wannabe Erdogan has other, hostile ideas about Israel.
The Syrian civil war saw the Turks aiding certain factions of ISIS. The Turks took a variety of positions as they opposed other ISIS factions, opposed the Syrians and their Iranian allies, and made ready to go after the Kurds who were stalwart forces opposed to all ISIS factions, including the ones supported by the Turks.
Along the way, Turk and the American ties deteriorated as we Americans backed Kurdish forces opposed to the Turks. This more than bothered Erdogan and threw huge obstacles in his way as he had ideas about Israel and using his 80,000 man military machine (the largest, best equipped, and best trained force outside of the Israelis).
The Russians (with American blessings) had become involved in the civil war on the side of Syria and against ISIS, including Erdogan’s pals. As the war ended, Russian forces remained in Northwestern Syria across the border from the Turks. The Russian positions blocked routes that the Turks would have taken in an invasion of Syria. America’s allies, the Kurds control half of Northeastern Syria and block the Turks on that front. When Erdogan started making ready to invade Kurdish territory in Syria, the Americans placed 4,000 (trip wire) troops with the Kurds, and transferred large amounts of powerful weaponry to the Kurds.
Thwarted by the Russians, the Kurds, and the Americans, Erdogan had to back away from his grand designs for Syria and Israel. Angry with America, Erdogan bluffed and failed and then went forward with a purchase of top-of-the-line S-400 Russian ground-to air missiles. This allowed Americans to pull the plug on a build-up of the Turkish Air Force with 100 of new F-35s, and to cancel contracts with the Turks to produce parts for the F-35 program. Turkey’s continuing as a NATO partner is now in serious jeopardy. This is good, as Turkey is no longer a trustworthy or useful ally.
With this, the humiliated Grand Pubah, Erdogan has been sidelined, for now.
The recent barrage of about 690 rockets into Israel from Gaza succeeded in killing some Israelis and brought Israeli retaliation that damaged Hamas operations in Gaza and killed over forty Arabs and Iranians. Israel has routinely punished Hamas for various reasons, and by now, Hamas has more than likely established redundant capabilities and can be back in operation quickly.
The 690 rockets were a test of Israeli defenses.
The world of Islam is in the midst of an annual sunrise to sunset Ramadan fast. After sunset, they gather together and pig out. They are not prepared to wage war at this time. However, when this Ramadan season ends on June 4th, they will be prepared to wage war.
I am not privy to any insider information. I have been a close observer and have been involved in the Middle East during the more than ten years that I lived in Moslem countries. A retired Foreign Service Officer, I also understand how some things work.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has been busy as he has cancelled high level visits to take a quick trip to Iraq, very serious stuff.
In response to information indicating the Iranians are planning to target U.S. forces and/or facilities in the Middle east, the USA dispatched a naval battle group to the area along with some high altitude, high capacity B-52 bombers capable of dispatching nuclear bombs, cruise missiles, or monster bunker buster bombs. That’s the public side. We can assume that more has been done, but that it is not for public consumption.
Iran blames its woes on the Saudis, the Israelis, and the Americans, its targets for mayhem.
DEATH AND DESTRUCTION
I suspect that the stuff may hit the fan in early June, after Ramadan ends.
Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria, along with Iranian forces in Syria will launch prolonged rocket and even ground attacks directed at Israel – so much so that Israeli Iron Dome and related defenses may be seriously challenged with serious damage occurring.
Israel will hit back and do so with skill and savagery. Iran with its North Korean partners may launch long and intermediate range rockets, possibly with nuclear warheads aimed at Saudi, Israeli, and American targets. Any such attack will prompt overwhelming Saudi, Israeli, and American responses which will crush Iranian forces throughout the area.
We have four prominent women in the United States that have been spewing ugly, nasty hatred for Israel, Jews, Christians, and America. Three of them are in the House of Representatives. They call for murdering innocent men, women, and children, and are being allowed to do this.
Ilhan Omar has been promoting violence against everything that she doesn’t like – and that’s a great deal. Her encouragement has resulted in attacks against Jews, Christians, and others; and a bevy of public activities such as children in Pennsylvania chanting about killing, beheading Jews. Omar famously said “some people did something” regarding the attacks of 9/11 and the recent Moslem attacks against Christians in Sri Lanka. Some Americans look forward to “some people doing something” about Mosques.
Linda Sarsour, a darling of the left who, given the chance will slit the throats of leftists.
Rashida Tlaib who profanely called for the impeachment of the President, and who has claimed that she feared repercussions after the terrorist attacks of 9/11/200.
AO Cortez unquestionably hates America and just about everything that this great nation stands for, and supports the Moslems in their hatred of us.
We Americans foolishly tolerate those who do not tolerate us. What’s the matter here? It’s time to reciprocate.
When/if the Iranians launch their attacks, expect that these four cheap rabble rousers to hit the streets to cause as much trouble as they can. I hope they get locked up for inciting violence.
James E. Horn (www.jamesehorn.com) is a retired American diplomat who writes, teaches, and speaks with uncomplimentary truths and facts about Islam.