Russia’s Ukraine

My take on the Russian invasion of the Ukraine:

While all of the TV pundits seem focused on Russian actions in the Ukraine, they appear to be somewhat ignorant of the ‘realpolitik’ involved.

I believe that Vladimir Putin’s overarching consideration is the preservation and protection of a sovereign ‘mother’ Russia now and far into the future. A weakened, increasingly xenophobic Russian remnant of the USSR has felt vulnerable to what they understand to be a predatory west.
Vladimir Putin was a serious chess master by the time he finished his KGB training and received his commission. He is more than smart. A part of the chess program for KGB officers is to teach them to think smart and to plan ahead. Putin is light years ahead of the Biden crew. He did not wake up one morning and whimsically decide to go after the Ukraine. He has been planning this move for a long time, but deferred any action during Trump’s presidency. His current invasion of the Ukraine has been very carefully orchestrated to be a winner for Russia…..

The Biden White House’s pitiful sanctions will not deter or even hurt Russia or Putin who long ago organized work-arounds (in advance) of probable sanctions. Putin holds the cards. The Biden Sanctions will cause we Americans more pain than it will Russians.

The old USSR was a contiguous land mass that was broken up with the fall of the USSR. Countries broke away and self-parceled themselves out to various players, mostly to the west. These countries were valuable to Russia in many ways, including as buffers against the hardened, nuclear west (with NATO’S early 16-nations). Fourteen of the break aways joined NATO, and the Ukraine was trying hard to become a NATO member which was intolerable to the Kremlin. One should have no doubt that the Kremlin has repeatedly warned the Ukrainian government about NATO membership. The Ukrainians apparently ignored the Kremlin, and this invasion is a consequence. It is going to be brutal.
Western Europeans seem to be genetically incapable of standing up to Russia. As most of us know, Western Europe is rapidly allowing itself to be conquered by Islam to the point that many increawsingly refer to Western Europe as EURABIA. Putin’s Russia will not tolerate a unified western frontier dominated by Islam. While the invasion of the Ukraine is not the harbinger of WWIII, the Islamization of Western Europe will provoke WWIII.

For a thousand years, Moslems led by Turks have raided or invaded north into Europe, Russia, and the Ukraine; and Moslem remnants of those Turkic invasions remain in Chechnya, Dagestan, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, as well as nearby in the former Yugoslavia, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kirgizstan who are all hostile players, some neutralized. The Ukraine has been hospitable to Moslems who have about 160 Mosques in the country. The Turks still have designs on the Ukraine and if the Ukraine became a part of NATO, the Turks would have demanded a substantial military presence in the Ukraine, something abhorrent to Russia. [The USA specifically brought Turkey into NATO as a threat to Russia’s southern flank.] The mere thought of Moslems welcomed and ensconced in the Ukraine rankles the Kremlin.

In 1979, Russia invaded Afghanistan ostensibly to uphold an Afghan-Soviet Friendship Treaty (really, to secure a warm water port on the Indian Ocean) that Jimmy Carter opposed. Carter provided significant training and armaments to the Afghan forces who beat the Russians back. This American intervention never sat well with Putin who will not countenance much interference from the USA.
ANIMUS: Russia sees the USA (allied with Islamic states) as a major existential threat. The USA led in the formation of NATO in opposition to the Russian led Warsaw Pact. American actions in support of the Afghan Mujahideen damaged Russia badly. America’s involvement in the Korean conflict defeated Russian/Chinese designs in the region. Russia invested big time in Cuba where America thwarted some of their ambitions. Russia, China, and Islam have rendered the UN to be appropriately nicknamed the Useless Nations.

DOMINOE: The Ukraine is the first of the Kremlin’s targets to soon succumb. Others will follow.

About James E. Horn

Retired American Diplomat served in American embassies and consulates for 25-years, ten in Islamic societies. I am not a fan of Islam. I do public speaking and have books listed.

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